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Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

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Latest Analyst Comments by Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker
 

Buy Financials (Because I Was Right) (The Market Ticker) - Mar 05, 2010

Yes, that's sarcasm: The mortgage firms are looking at every loan more than 90 days past due and "asking us basically to give them all the documentation to show that it was properly underwritten," JPMorgan's Scharf said. "We then go through a process with them that takes a period of time, and literally it's every loan, loan by loan, and have the discussion on whether or not we actually should buy the loan back.". That's exactly what I said would happen more than two years ago. 
Recent Research on JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
Moody's: U.S. bank asset quality stabilizes, but the pain isn't over (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Mar 10, 2010
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Feb 16, 2010
Summary: JPMorgan Chase&Co. (S&P Credit Research)- Feb 03, 2010
more research
Share:  Yes, that's sarcasm: The mortgage firms are looking at every loan more than 90 days past due and "asking us basically to give them all the documentation to show that it was properly underwritten," <span class="company">JPMorgan</span>'s Scharf said. "We then go through a process with them that takes a period of time, and literally it's every loan, loan by loan, and have the discussion on whether or not we actually should buy the loan back.". That's exactly what I said would happen more than two years ago. Tweet this 

Microsoft: Blow Me (The Market Ticker) - Mar 03, 2010

Microsoft: Blow Me. Now this is hubris: Today most hacked PCs run Microsoft's Windows operating system, and the company has invested millions in trying to fight the problem. That's because the operating system was designed for backward compatibility with Windows 95 and 98 first (and 3.1 before it) which had no concept of permissions or privileges. 
Recent Research on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Summary: Microsoft Corp. (S&P Credit Research)- Feb 05, 2010
Microsoft at JPMorgan Technology Forum (Thomson Street Events)- Jan 07, 2010
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Share:  <span class="company">Microsoft</span>: Blow Me. Now this is hubris: Today most hacked PCs run <span class="company">Microsoft</span>'s Windows operating system, and the company has invested millions in trying to fight the problem. That's because the operating system was designed for backward compatibility with Windows 95 and 98 first (and 3.1 before it) which had no concept of permissions or privileges. Tweet this 

Bombshell In AIG 10Q: "Capital Relief" (The Market Ticker) - Feb 26, 2010

Bombshell In AIG 10Q: "Capital Relief" Now that I've had to time to read the entire AIG 10Q there's a nasty ditty in here that in my opinion goes materially beyond the "going concern" language. It's here: . A deterioration in the credit markets may cause AIG to recognize unrealized market valuation losses in AIGFP's regulatory capital super senior credit default swap portfolio in future periods which could have a material adverse effect on AIG's consolidated financial condition or consolidated results of operations. 
Recent Research on American International Group, Inc. (AIG)
Moody's affirms ALICO's A1 rating upon acquisition announcement by AIG (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Mar 08, 2010
Moody's affirms AIA (Bermuda) rating at Aa3 with negative outlook (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Mar 02, 2010
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Share:  Bombshell In <span class="company">AIG</span> 10Q: "Capital Relief" Now that I've had to time to read the entire <span class="company">AIG</span> 10Q there's a nasty ditty in here that in my opinion goes materially beyond the "going concern" language. It's here: . A deterioration in the credit markets may cause <span class="company">AIG</span> to recognize unrealized market valuation losses in <span class="company">AIG</span>FP's regulatory capital super senior credit default swap portfolio in future periods which could have a material adverse effect on <span class="company">AIG</span>'s consolidated financial condition or consolidated results of operations. Tweet this 

AIG Gets The Dreaded "Going Concern" (The Market Ticker) - Feb 26, 2010

AIG Gets The Dreaded "Going Concern" Gee, who saw this coming..oh wait , not in the press release, is it? . NEW YORK (BUSINESS WIRE) American International Group, Inc (AIG) today reported a net loss attributable to AIG common shareholders of $8.9 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009, or $65.51 per diluted common share, compared to a net loss of $61.7 billion or $458.99 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2008. Fourth quarter 2009 adjusted net loss was $7.2 billion, compared to an adjusted net loss of $38.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. 
Share:  <span class="company">AIG</span> Gets The Dreaded "Going Concern" Gee, who saw this coming..oh wait , not in the press release, is it? . NEW YORK (BUSINESS WIRE) American International Group, Inc (<span class="company">AIG</span>) today reported a net loss attributable to <span class="company">AIG</span> common shareholders of $8.9 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009, or $65.51 per diluted common share, compared to a net loss of $61.7 billion or $458.99 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2008. Fourth quarter 2009 adjusted net loss was $7.2 billion, compared to an adjusted net loss of $38.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008. Tweet this 

The Oven Just Got Hotter (LMSD) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 23, 2010

Absolute Software said it dissuades users of theft recovery software from acting on their own "We discourage any customer from taking theft recovery into their own hands," said Stephen Midgley, the company's head of marketing, in an interview Monday "That's best left in the hands of professionals" 
Recent Research on Absolute Software Corporation (ABT)
Q1 2010 ABSOLUTE SOFTWARE CORP Earnings Conference Call (Thomson Street Events)- Nov 02, 2009
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Share:  <span class="company">Absolute Software</span> said it dissuades users of theft recovery software from acting on their own "We discourage any customer from taking theft recovery into their own hands," said Stephen Midgley, the company's head of marketing, in an interview Monday Tweet this 

How Long Before You Wake Up, Politicos? (The Market Ticker) - Feb 23, 2010

It appears that AIG , the company we have bailed out (thus far) to the tune of some $100 billion plus, in fact isn't done It appears they may have written credit protection on Greece If this allegation by the German equivalent to The New York Times is true Americans are going to be asked to pay billions of dollars , or more likely, hundreds of billions (since Greece is almost certainly not the only place , try Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc) to bail out a bunch of FOREIGN NATIONS 
Share:  It appears that <span class="company">AIG</span> , the company we have bailed out (thus far) to the tune of some $100 billion plus, in fact isn't done It appears they may have written credit protection on Greece Tweet this 

Stasi-Style Crap Continues (Lower Merion Schools) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 22, 2010

That packet contains the MAC address for each media interface in the box and nothing more MAC addresses must be unique on a given LAN (or havoc will ensue) and as such they are as close to a unique serial number as can be relied upon They are not "visible" beyond the LAN the machine is connected to, thus the requirement for a tiny application to send them 
Recent Research on Apple Inc (AAPL)
Q4 2009 Apple Inc. Earnings Conference Call (Thomson Street Events)- Oct 19, 2009
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Share:  That packet contains the <span class="company">MAC</span> address for each media interface in the box and nothing more <span class="company">MAC</span> addresses must be unique on a given LAN (or havoc will ensue) and as such they are as close to a unique serial number as can be relied upon Tweet this 

More Hand-Waving By The Vampire Squid (The Market Ticker) - Feb 22, 2010

More Hand Waving By The Vampire Squid Now comes Goldman Sachs trying to justify the Greek Debt Swaps Following Greece's decision to join the European Monetary Union and adopt the Euro (which, under the criteria set by the European Union, included a debt to GDP ratio of less than 60%), reducing the size of foreign denominated liabilities became a priority for Greece, as it did for most European sovereign states According to the EU accounting framework, unhedged foreign currency denominated debt was required to be translated into Euro using the year end exchange rate 
Recent Research on The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
Moody's lowers Goldman's hybrid securities ratings (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Feb 25, 2010
Summary: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (The) (S&P Credit Research)- Feb 08, 2010
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (The) (S&P Credit Research)- Feb 08, 2010
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Share:  More Hand Waving By The Vampire Squid Now comes <span class="company">Goldman Sachs</span> trying to justify the Greek Debt Swaps Following Greece's decision to join the European Monetary Union and adopt the Euro (which, under the criteria set by the European Union, included a debt to GDP ratio of less than 60%), reducing the size of foreign denominated liabilities became a priority for Greece, as it did for most European sovereign states Tweet this 

WWW = Wally World Whiff? (WMT) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 18, 2010

(WMT) Hmmmm Sales by US stores open at least a year fell 16 percent in the three months ended Jan 31, the Bentonville, Arkansas based company said today in a statement Wal Mart had projected sales to decline no more than 1 percent 
Share:  (<span class="company">WMT</span>) Hmmmm Sales by US stores open at least a year fell 16 percent in the three months ended Jan 31, the Bentonville, Arkansas based company said today in a statement Tweet this 

Now The Game's Afoot (Greece and Goldman) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 15, 2010

Now The Game's Afoot (Greece and Goldman) This is amusing Greece turned to Goldman Sachs Group Inc in 2002, just after adopting the euro, to get $1 billion in funding through a swap on $10 billion of debt, Christoforos Sardelis, head of Greece's Public Debt Management Agency at the time, said in an interview last week Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, was aware of the plan, he said Risk Magazine also reported on the swap in 
Share:  Now The Game's Afoot (Greece and Goldman) This is amusing Greece turned to <span class="company">Goldman Sachs</span> Group Inc in 2002, just after adopting the euro, to get $1 billion in funding through a swap on $10 billion of debt, Christoforos Sardelis, head of Greece's Public Debt Management Agency at the time, said in an interview last week Tweet this 

"Mistaken" Foreclosure Or Felony Criminal Conduct? (The Market Ticker) - Feb 13, 2010

Just one problem: The Massachusetts couple paid for their future retirement home in Spring Hill with cash in 2005, five years before agents for Bank of America seized the house, removed belongings and changed the locks on the doors, according to a lawsuit the couple have filed in federal court Let me be clear: To foreclose on something you must first be holding a mortgage on that thing Bank of America did not "foreclose" on anything as the home in question was purchased for cash and thus owned free and clear 
Recent Research on Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Moody's: U.S. bank asset quality stabilizes, but the pain isn't over (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Mar 10, 2010
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Feb 16, 2010
more research
Share:  Just one problem: The Massachusetts couple paid for their future retirement home in Spring Hill with cash in 2005, five years before agents for <span class="company">Bank of America</span> seized the house, removed belongings and changed the locks on the doors, according to a lawsuit the couple have filed in federal court Tweet this 

Partisan Attacks WILL NOT Solve The Problem (The Market Ticker) - Feb 12, 2010

Employees from Goldman Sachs gave more to the Obama campaign than any other organization except the University of California with Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase quickly following in sixth and seventh place Absolutely correct 
Share:  Employees from <span class="company">Goldman Sachs</span> gave more to the Obama campaign than any other organization except the University of California Tweet this 

The Audacity Of Synthetics (The Market Ticker) - Feb 09, 2010

Bear, Deutsche and Goldman knew perfectly well what Paulson's motivation was He made no secret of his belief that the CDOs subordinate claims on the mortgage collateral were close to worthless By the time others have figured out the fatal flaws in these securities which had been ignored by the rating agencies, Paulson could collect up to $5 billion 
Share:  Bear, Deutsche and <span class="company">Goldman</span> knew perfectly well what Paulson's motivation was He made no secret of his belief that the CDOs subordinate claims on the mortgage collateral were close to worthless Tweet this 

As Fiderer explains, Paulson asked the banks to create those CDOs "so that they could be sold to some suckers at close to par That way, Paulson's hedge fund could approach some other sucker who would sell an insurance policy, or credit default swap, on the newly minted CDOs Bear, Deutsche and Goldman knew perfectly well what Paulson's motivation was 
Share:  As Fiderer explains, <span class="company">Paulson</span> asked the banks to create those CDOs "so that they could be sold to some suckers at close to par Tweet this 

The Peter Principle Lives On (CIT/Thain) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 08, 2010

John Thain, the ousted chief of Merrill Lynch & Co, was named to lead CIT Group Inc, the commercial lender that emerged from bankruptcy in December, after a nearly four month search for a replacement Oh, they are serious The same John Thain that ran Merrill into the ground with, in part, basis trades (that is, proprietary trading) that blew up in his face? 
Recent Research on The CIT Group, Inc. (CIT)
Moody's withdraws CIT Group Inc. ratings (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Nov 30, 2009
Leveraged Finance Weekly (Fitch Research)- Nov 06, 2009
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Share:  John Thain, the ousted chief of Merrill Lynch & Co, was named to lead <span class="company">CIT</span> Group Inc, the commercial lender that emerged from bankruptcy in December, after a nearly four month search for a replacement Tweet this 

You Had Better Cage The Monster CONgress (AIG/GS/CDS) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 06, 2010

You Had Better Cage The Monster CONgress (AIG/GS/CDS) I've been writing about this now over a year in regard to the mess that became of AIG, their "financial products" unit, and what I believe is culpability not only of certain financial parties but more importantly our regulators of these firms Now The NY Times has published a new article that makes clear that my clarion call for major changes in these areas of the market were not only spot on, but are even more necessary today than they were back then AIG had long insured complex mortgage securities owned by Goldman and other firms against possible defaults 
Share:  You Had Better Cage The Monster CONgress (<span class="company">AIG</span>/GS/CDS) I've been writing about this now over a year in regard to the mess that became of <span class="company">AIG</span>, their "financial products" unit, and what I believe is culpability not only of certain financial parties but more importantly our regulators of these firms Tweet this 

AIG had long insured complex mortgage securities owned by Goldman and other firms against possible defaults With the housing crisis deepening, AIG, once the world's biggest insurer, had already paid Goldman $2 billion to cover losses the bank said it might suffer AIG executives wanted some of its money back, insisting that Goldman — like a homeowner overestimating the damages in a storm to get a bigger insurance payment — had inflated the potential losses 
Share:  AIG had long insured complex mortgage securities owned by <span class="company">Goldman</span> and other firms against possible defaults With the housing crisis deepening, AIG, once the world's biggest insurer, had already paid <span class="company">Goldman</span> $2 billion to cover losses the bank said it might suffer Tweet this 

Oh No... You Heard It Here First (Lucent Gastric Reflux) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 03, 2010

When Cisco last took the stage in November, CEO John Chambers predicted an uplift in business He didn't mention at the time that the company would offer to lend a hand in the form of zero percent financing Taking a page from the automakers' playbook circa 2002, Cisco introduced three year, interest free financing for its small and mid sized business customers last week 
Recent Research on Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Feb 24, 2010
Cisco Systems at Morgan Stanley TMT Conference (Thomson Street Events)- Nov 18, 2009
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Share:  When <span class="company">Cisco</span> last took the stage in November, CEO John Chambers predicted an uplift in business He didn't mention at the time that the company would offer to lend a hand in the form of zero percent financing Tweet this 

EXPLOSIVE: AIG Bailout Flat-Out Illegal? (The Market Ticker) - Feb 03, 2010

EXPLOSIVE: AIG Bailout Flat Out Illegal? Biggovernment has presented an explosive story related to AIG and The NY Fed in which the claim is made that the trust agreement that established AIG's "grab" by The NY Fed was in fact outright unlawful: This afternoon on Secure Freedom Radio we announced a breaking news story concerning the Administration's ongoing cover up of AIG financial wrong doing 
Share:  EXPLOSIVE: <span class="company">AIG</span> Bailout Flat Out Illegal? Biggovernment has presented an explosive story related to <span class="company">AIG</span> and The NY Fed in which the claim is made that the trust agreement that established <span class="company">AIG</span>'s "grab" by The NY Fed was in fact outright unlawful: Tweet this 

Where Did They Get The Money? (BlackRock) (The Market Ticker) - Feb 02, 2010

(BlackRock) One has to wonder We counted over 1,800 13Gs that Blackrock dumped on Friday , which explains why EDGAR might have been a tad bit pokey The stream started at just after 2 pm est and didn't let up until just after 4:30, when the last one, which reported a 65% stake in Vodafone came in 
Recent Research on BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)
Moody's rates BlackRock's senior notes A1 (outlook stable) (Moody's Global Credit Research)- Dec 08, 2009
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Share:  (<span class="company">BlackRock</span>) One has to wonder We counted over 1,800 13Gs that Blackrock dumped on Friday , which explains why EDGAR might have been a tad bit pokey Tweet this 

Bio
 

Karl Denninger

The Market Ticker

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Karl Denninger

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